strategist and a cbs news consultant. >> mitt romney's pollster has his reputation that mitt romney will win this election that they're going to win ohio and many of these key states and that the published polls are wrong. >> reporter: you're absolutely convinced that obama is going to win the electoral college vote. >> no. i'm convinced if offerd either money i would be happy to bet on obama. i would, you know, a pretty good prize to bet on romney. 2 to 1 wouldn't do it for me. 3 to 1 might. >> reporter: so who or what to believe? in the 7-11 coffee cup vote, right in the last three elections, obama is ahead 59 to 41%. obama halloween masks outsold romney masks 63 to 37%. the mask poll has been right since 1996. if this any gauge of the tightness of the race in family circle magazine first lady cookie contest, michelle obama's whielt-and-dark chocolate chip cookies squeaked by ann romney's m&m cookies by 287 votes out of more than 9,000. >> romney's poll numbers in ohio has surged. >> the latest gallup poll shows... >> reporter: to quota horrible journalistic cliche, only time will tell